"Climate Policy under Uncertainty: A Case for Geoengineering" - J. Moreno-Cruz, D.W. Keith, Climatic Change, 2010.
It appears to be technically feasible to engineer an increase in albedo, a planetary brightening, as a means to offset the warming caused by carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and other greenhouse gases through Solar Radiation Management (SRM). This option has two characteristics that make it attractive for managing climate risk: it is quick and cheap. However, SRM cannot exactly compensate for the CO2 -driven climate change. Moreover, SRM introduces risks in the climate system that are unique to this type of intervention. We introduce SRM in a model of climate change economics and analyze the optimal policy under uncertainty. We find that the quick response allowed by SRM makes it important even if it is relatively ineffective at compensating for CO2 -driven climate change or even if its costs are expected to be large compared to traditional mitigation strategies. Finally, we examine the implications of uncertainty about the effectiveness of SRM and show that the value of reducing uncertainty can readily exceed several trillion US dollars over the next 100 years, providing a strong argument for a research program.
Moreno-Cruz, Keith, 2010
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